Showing posts with label Congress. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Congress. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 8, 2013

20 years of change after Rajiv Gandhi

Known as one of the brightest stars in Indian politics, Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination shook up the foundation of the Congress party. A documentation of how his death reversed fortunes of the party, and dramatically altered the Indian political scenario...

Twenty one years ago on May 21, 1991, a bomb explosion killed Rajiv Gandhi, while he was campaigning for the Congress party in Sriperumbudur, about 40 km from Chennai, on the second day of the 10th Lok Sabha elections. [Rajiv who had served as the PM of India between 1984-89 (at the age of 40 – he was the youngest ever PM of India) is till this day regarded as perhaps the most charismatic figure that ever took the stage of Indian politics.] The sudden, premature demise of Rajiv not only shocked the world, it also marked an end of an era that saw India being led by the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty for all but five years since independence.

Though nobody took immediate responsibility, the attack was blamed on Rajiv’s arch enemies, the LTTE, that was fighting for a separate homeland for the Tamils in Lanka. Rajiv could not contain the political problems afflicting India, and found refuge in international entanglements and commitments. He committed the so-called Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) to Lanka in July 1987 in an endeavour to help the government there to eradicate militants agitating for a separate Tamil homeland. [The IPKF had to be withdrawn in 32 months.] His period in office was marred by scandals and allegations of corruption on so huge a scale that he undoubtedly lost the election of 1989 partly on account of public perception. The Congress suffered an electoral defeat. His successor, V. P. Singh, could not hold office for long, and Rajiv started campaigning in earnest in 1991. But then, his assassination put an end to his half-finished political career.

Most people remember Rajiv as a visionary who encouraged foreign investment, a freer economy and rejuvenated his own party. “People had sympathy for Rajiv. He was not aware of the problems of the people at the grassroots level. However, he was a very dynamic person,” recalls Mohan Dharia, a former Union Minister who had served in the Indira Gandhi cabinet, but resigned on his differences with her ideologies. He remembers Rajiv as someone who wanted to modernise India.

When US denied to give India the technology of supercomputing, it was Rajiv who encouraged the creation of the indigenous Param Super Computers. Agrees Dr. M. P. Narayanan, former Chairman of Coal India (1988-91), who says that with the demise of Rajiv, India not only lost a visionary, but a receptive and encouraging human being. “His leadership style was such that would even allow mid-level officers to walk up to him and he would listen to their ideas. I wonder if subsequent PMs have ever found time for that,” he says.

Rajiv’s vision for India was that of a modern nation that takes full advantage of technology. We’re living his vision today. Says political observer Suvrokamal Dutta, “Many people believe that it was Narasimha Rao that initiated the globalisation process. However, it was Rajiv who created the ground for that process. He was also working on various missile treaties with Western countries.” Rajiv’s other revolutionary move was to lower the voting age to 18 from 21 years in India. Having said thus, it is important to note that Rajiv’s political career also became mired with allegations and scandals. The Bofors scandal is an unsettled blot on his otherwise glorious career. It cost him three-quarters of his MPs.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
 
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Thursday, July 26, 2012

Why 2014 Can Deliver Shocks

Back in September 2006, when we launched The Sunday Indian, our first cover story was on the likelihood-some would say inevitability-of Rahul Gandhi becoming the Prime Minister of India. Back then, we wondered how a Gandhi would handle the fact of being the first Gandhi to not be the unquestioned leader of the Cabinet and the nation. The only message that is loud and clear from assembly elections and bye elections held over the last one year is: there is just no way the Congress will improve upon its 2009 tally of 206 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. The rest of the MPs required to cross the magic mark of 272 will be supplied by Mamta Bannerjee, Sharad Pawar and perhaps even Jayalalitha, apart from assorted smaller allies. How then would Rahul Gandhi function as Prime Minister?

Let's look at the best case scenario for Congress, where it has a chance of significantly improving its tally. Out of the 112 odd seats in Jharkhand, Orissa, Chattisgarh, Bihar and Karnataka, the Congress won just 16 seats. Let us assume that the Rahul Gandhi magic works in these states. Even then, the most hopelessly die hard supporter of the Congress would not bet on the party’s tally from these states going up by more than double. (Do you seriously expect the Congress to sweep Bihar, Karnataka and Orissa that give 87 MPs?) That gives the Congress 16 more seats. In effect, the Congress tally would go up to 230 if you are wildly optimistic.

But electoral politics is different from wild optimism. In U.P, the Congress already has 22 seats and cannot significantly improve; in Delhi, it has 7 out of 7 seats; in Haryana, it has 9 out of 10 seats, in Uttarakhand, it has 5 out of 5 seats, in Rajasthan, it has 20 out of 25 seats; in Madhya Pradesh, it already has 12 out of 29 seats and has 11 out of 26 seats in Gujarat. Worse, it has 33 out of 42 seats in Andhra. After the Jagan Mohan Reddy show, how many of you would bet on Congress retaining the tally? It then boils down to West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, where the UPA already swept the elections in 2009.

The most intriguing question then is: would Rahul Gandhi be amenable to being the Prime Minister of India and yet be at the mercy of temperamental allies? It is OK for a Manmohan Singh to be the Prime Minister in such a situation because he never was a leader anyway. But what happens to the fabled aura and charisma of the Gandhi family when Indian voters see Rahul Gandhi the way he will look after coalition politics inevitably takes its toll? Can the Gandhi family take that kind of risk?

My advice to CEOs of India Inc, start investing in another Manmohan Singh right now. There is little doubt that he or she will be India’s next Prime Minister with Rahul Gandhi playing the now familiar role of being the real power behind the throne.